New research in The Lancet shows that if the UK had better vaccine coverage in summer 2022, more than 7,000 hospitalizations and deaths might have been avoided. This information is crucial as COVID-19 cases increase and a new variant is discovered. The study used anonymous health data from all UK nations, made possible by pandemic advancements, offering valuable insights for policymakers.
Co-author Angela Wood, Professor of Health Data Science at the Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart & Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, and Associate Director of the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, said: “This is the first epidemiological study to use individual-level anonymized health data covering the entire UK population. We have created a detailed, UK-wide picture of who is under-vaccinated against COVID-19 and the associated risks of under-vaccination.”
“These results can help create health policy and public health interventions to improve vaccine uptake. This approach could be extended to many other areas of medicine with great potential for discoveries in the understanding and treating disease.”
Initially, the UK had a strong start in vaccinating over 90% of people aged 12 and above with at least one COVID-19 dose by January 2022. However, understanding booster shot rates was unclear until recently.
Scientists, led by Health Data Research UK and the University of Edinburgh, studied NHS data from everyone over five years old between June 1 and September 30, 2022. The data was de-identified and only accessible to approved researchers.
Pooling and harmonizing data from all four UK countries, researchers categorized people based on their vaccine status. Under-vaccination was defined as not receiving all eligible vaccine doses.
New findings show that between one-third and one-half of the UK population was under-vaccinated on June 1, 2022 – 45.7% in England, 49.8% in Northern Ireland, 34.2% in Scotland, and 32.8% in Wales.
Mathematical models suggest that if everyone in the UK was fully vaccinated, around 7,180 hospitalizations and deaths out of 40,400 severe COVID-19 cases in summer 2022 could have been avoided.
Under-vaccination was linked to more hospitalizations and deaths across all age groups, with those over 75 being more than twice as likely to have severe outcomes if under-vaccinated. Younger people, men, those in deprived areas, had the highest rates of under-vaccination.
This study, the largest in the UK, marks a new era for UK science by successfully uniting NHS data from different devolved nations.
Professor Cathie Sudlow, Chief Scientist at Health Data Research UK and Director of the British Heart Foundation (BHF) Data Science Centre said: “The infrastructure now exists to make full use of the potential of routinely collected data in the NHS across the four nations of the UK. We believe that we could and should extend these approaches to many other areas of medicine, such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes, to search for better understanding, prevention, and treatment of disease.”
Professor Sir Aziz Sheikh, Director of the Usher Institute at the University of Edinburgh, HDR UK Research Director and study co-lead, said: “Large-scale data studies have been critical to pandemic management, allowing scientists to make policy-relevant findings quickly. COVID-19 vaccines save lives. As new variants emerge, this study will help to pinpoint groups of our society and areas of the country where public health campaigns should be focused and tailored for those communities.”
This comprehensive study highlights the critical relationship between COVID-19 vaccine uptake and its impact on public health outcomes. The findings underscore the importance of addressing vaccination gaps to minimize hospitalizations and deaths, especially in the context of emerging variants and ongoing efforts to control the spread of the virus.
Journal reference:
- Steven Kerr,Stuart Bedston, et al., Undervaccination and severe COVID-19 outcomes: a meta-analysis of national cohort studies in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. The Lancet. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02467-4.