The Premonition: Agent based Model for fire safety

A big data analysis mapped how fire safety education spreads among communities.

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It has always been a concern for fire services to understand and predict behaviors of households within the community as they are supposed to plan for effective and efficient public services. South Yokshire Fire and Rescue Services has been working with researchers to develop “Premonition” project which aims to find a new way of keeping the vulnerable community safe from fire ensuring reduction in financial pressure of fire services.

The “Premonition” model draws on historical data of fire incidents and community interventions (like home safety checks, fire safety campaigns, etc.) collected by South Yokshire Fire and Rescue, the UK to unveil changing behavioral patterns of household within the region.

Along with co-authors Dr. Stephen Dobson, the University of Leeds, and Nicola Smith, South Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service, Dr. Dermot Breslin said: “The premonition project demonstrates the power of using big data to understand better-changing household risk behavior.”

He added: “These tools enable services to predict future patterns of change, and optimize fire prevention strategies to protect the most vulnerable in our community.”

Simulation carried out using Premolition model, established that close-knit targeting group of connected households showed enhancement in the effectiveness of preventive intervention and utilization of associated resources. Also, repeating safety visits over time can reduce the risk factors involved. Following this could minimize fire risk factors involved in the broader community.

While simulation research is being validated in the real world through pilot studies, research has already impacted the operations of fire services.

Nicola Smith, South Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service commented:

“The project has furthered our understanding of fire risk and behavior, and provides us with the insight and tools to inform how we target our services at those most at risk of fire in the home.”

The research has been published in the International Journal of Emergency Services.