Climate change threatens global food security, affecting crop productivity and shifting cropping areas.
A new study by Aalto University researchers shows exactly where and how warming will impact food production. They studied how future temperature, precipitation, and aridity changes will affect 30 major food crops worldwide.
They found that low-latitude regions will suffer more than mid- or high-latitude regions. What’s more, global food security could be notably impacted by a marked decline in crop diversity if temperatures rise by more than 1.5°C.
Depending on the level of warming, up to half of crop production in low-latitude areas could be at risk, with a significant drop in crop diversity. This loss of diversity means fewer types of crops can be grown, reducing food security and making it harder to get enough calories and protein.
Global warming will significantly reduce the cropland available for staple crops like rice, maize, wheat, potatoes, and soybeans, which provide over two-thirds of the world’s food energy. Tropical root crops such as yams, essential for food security in low-income regions, are especially vulnerable.
In sub-Saharan Africa, almost three-quarters of current production is at risk if global warming exceeds 3°C.
The growth of food production for the growing population
In contrast, mid- and high-latitude areas will likely retain their productive land, though specific crop zones will change. These areas may also increase crop diversity, such as cultivating temperate fruits like pears in more northern regions.
However, even if climatic conditions are favorable, other factors, such as new pests and extreme weather events, could still hamper agriculture in these areas.
The study’s senior author, Professor Matti Kummu, said, “Many of the low-latitude regions threatened most by warming are already vulnerable in numerous ways. They face problems with food sufficiency, and economic and systemic forces make them less resilient than northern countries. Nevertheless, I can see how these regions could, at least partly, meet the challenge.”
“In many low latitude areas, especially in Africa, the yields are small compared to similar areas elsewhere. They could get higher yields with access to fertilizers and irrigation and reduce food losses through the production and storage chain. However, ongoing global warming will add a lot of uncertainty to these estimates, and even more, actions are needed, such as crop selection and novel breeding. But I always say that modeling and analysis are easy– understanding how to make changes happen is the hardest part.”
Policymakers in low-latitude countries need to work on closing such gaps, whereas farmers and policymakers in high-latitude regions need more flexibility.
Journal Reference:
- Heikonen, S., Heino, M., Jalava, M. et al. Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes. Nat Food (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w
