Modelling Human Psychology to Predict Human Behavior

Understanding, analyzing and predicting human behavior.

Illustrative image of sub conscious level
Illustrative image of sub conscious level

Human psychology involves the science of behavior and brain, grasping all parts of cognizant and oblivious experience and also thought. An individual’s psychological makeup relies upon a variety of enthusiastic and motivational parameters. For example, desire, suffering or the need for security. It also involves spatial and transient measurements that additionally assume a key part in excusing the choices we make and arranging our activities.

A team of international scientists including the Universities of Geneva (UNIGE), Texas, Paris and University College London has created a first mathematical model of encapsulated awareness. They actually wanted to understand, analyze and predict human psychology.

Scientists demonstrated this model by using solid mathematical concepts and simulations. Through this, they were able to anticipate and explain a host of cognitive phenomena and behavioral reactions.

Scientists were actually keen to produce a psychological theory that operated on the model developed by the hard sciences. The main goal was to discover a mathematical model of human psychology for predicting and modeling human psychology.

David Rudrauf, professor in UNIGE’s faculty said, “We built a model to replicate decision-making based on the time, framework and perceptions (real and imaginary) that are linked to it. The next step was to analyze the best solution that the mind would naturally opt for.”

Karl Friston from University College London said, “Depending on an individual’s personal preferences, and imaginary perspectives on the world, the mind calculates the probabilities of obtaining what it wants in the safest possible way.”

“Our consciousness uses free energy to actively explore the world and to satisfy its predilections by imagining the anticipated consequences of its actions. Depending on the free energy, the mathematical model can predict the states of consciousness and behavior adopted by the individual and analyze the mechanisms.”

The model works by analyzing possible forms of behavior according to events. For example, if you spot a cake in a shop window, will you buy it or carry on your way? Based on your preferences, the model will determine what best suits your state of mind. After that, it will predict your psychological state and behavior using a combination of projective geometry and free-energy calculation.

Projective Awareness Model: a. The field of consciousness incorporates beliefs and preferences using projective geometry and minimizing free energy in order to motivate action. b. The subject imagines: option A (buying an expensive cake) and option B (making the cake him or herself) to reach the imagined situation 2 where the children at home are happy. Options A and B are very similar: both bring pleasure, but A demands an irreversible expense and B requires a one-off effort. The anticipated final free energy is minimal for B. The subject chooses B as the scenario to be realized. Credit: UNIGE

Daniel Bennequin at the University of Paris 7 explained, “Perception, imagination, and action are supported by unconscious mechanisms, we discovered that consciousness integrates them through a specific geometry: projective geometry.”

“It was then a question of understanding how this field of consciousness is related to affect, emotions and motivation as well as memory and intentions. “

Scientists primarily defined the theoretical components of the model and then implemented them in computer programs. By doing this, scientists were able to make predictions about behavior by playing with the model’s mechanisms, perfecting it and bringing it closer to human psychology.

Rudrau said, “It was long-term work. But our aim is also to gradually direct the research towards psychopathological models. We found, for example, that if we deprive the model of the faculty of imagination, it behaves like a person with autism.”

“This suggests research pathways on the importance of the imagination and its specific mechanisms in managing the illness.”

During experiments, the initial results show that this first mathematical model of embodied consciousness, incorporating temporality, spatialization, and emotions, can predict a vast array of known human behaviors and understand the mechanisms behind them.

Scientists noted, “There is still much work to be done. To replicate human consciousness identically, since every possible type of behavior must be implemented in the mathematical system.”

The scientist is now working on an extension of the algorithm that will produce machines that can adapt to the reactions of their interlocutors and act according to the principle of empathic reciprocity.